Welcome to the site of the Market Mind Hypothesis (MMH), a novel theory that pushes the frontiers of how we understand markets and the minds they embody. Developed within an Edinburgh-based international academic research programme, and drawing on the thinking of Adam Smith, our work touches on key issues in economics, investing, and cognitive science. We believe our multidisciplinary approach leads to insights that can improve markets, make investing more sustainable, increase the effectiveness of public-policy and ultimately benefit society.

 

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Cover image by Hybert Design.

Central to the financial sector

What if the market, instead of simply aggregating individual minds, creates and gathers into existence a collective mind of its own, including extended consciousness? Less farfetched than it sounds, this has always casually been referred to by investors as “the market’s mind”. Moreover, what are the subsequent implications, especially for mainstream’s flawed view (and treatment) of the market as an automaton? They could be profound.

With the MMH as a guide to behaviour, we may be better able to identify when things go awry, and avoid some of the excesses—both bubbles and crashes—that have occurred over the years. Likewise, the MMH can guide individual actors to better interpret the information they are getting, and thus improve their decisions. This is an outcome that’s key for the widest spectrum of financial sector companies including banks, insurers, actuarial advisors, pension funds and investment firms.



Scotland as a centre for financial thought

Ever since the Enlightenment, Scotland has been at the forefront of economic thought and theory–it was the home of some of the U.K.’s earliest banks and the centre for the development of the insurance and investment industry. Under the auspices of the Edinburgh Business School, we’re proud to continue in this long tradition, bringing together expertise from academia, business, and public policy.

Multidisciplinary

The best theories often come from combining different but complementary approaches. Our subject matter—partnering cognitive science with economics—raises important issues in how markets can and should operate, and how our understanding of mentality (in all its forms) relates to market activity. It also aims to help answer age-old questions such as the relationship between the realm of ideas and the physical world.

Reclaiming Adam Smith

Adam Smith was a renowned philosopher and economist, but his theories have frequently been misunderstood and shoehorned into rigid and partisan market doctrine, eschewing his complex and nuanced cognitive and moral theories. We believe he is not only the father of economics but also the first cognitive economist, with theories as relevant and as pertinent now as they were 250 years ago. Our work is also inspired by the cognitive reflections of other economists such as Friedrich Hayek and Frank Knight.

Support

We believe the questions we are seeking to answer are central to the proper operation of the finance industry and markets. We’re inviting senior executives and thought leaders within these businesses to join us in our quest and help fund this exciting endeavour.

Support opportunities—offering, for example, exclusive naming rights—include:

  • Establishing a full-fledged research centre.
  • Supporting the MMH research programme, especially the researchers.
  • Sponsoring future symposia.
  • Supporting lecture series and other events to promote cognitive economic research.

All our activities are organised and funded by the Market Mind Foundation, an educational charity. Specifically, it embodies an endowment through which we hope, in due time, to be able to become fully self-funded.

For more information contact: marketmind@ed.ac.uk

About Us

Our Story

Our programme continues to gather pace, build on a series of published and future publications, as well as research projects. Our pilot project received a research award from the Edinburgh Futures Institute (EFI) in 2019. The paper summarising this project, called “Spontaneous Volatility: Fooled by Reflexive Randomness”, was published by the Journal of Behavioral Finance in June, 2020. In 2021 Programme Director Patrick Schotanus co-authored—with Ron Chrisley, Andy Clark, Duncan Pritchard, and Aaron Schurger—a paper called “Reflexivity and the Market Mind Hypothesis; Why George Soros is not a failed philosopher”, explaining Soros’s philosophy of reflexivity from the MMH perspective.

The paper received approving comments from Soros and is currently in preparation for submission. Patrick has also produced a review paper, or primer, on cognitive economics from the MMH perspective which has just been published in the journal Economic Affairs.

Patrick Schotanus

Dr. Patrick Schotanus is further developing the Market Mind Hypothesis (MMH), together with other researchers, at the Edinburgh Futures Institute (University of Edinburgh). His technical papers have been published in various peer-reviewed journals and he regularly presents his work at conferences and seminars. Previously Patrick worked in investment management and banking in Edinburgh, London, New York, and Singapore, as well as the Netherlands (where he was born).

During that time he worked for various firms in senior positions, most recently as global multi-asset strategist and portfolio manager. Patrick has a PhD and two master’s degrees, one from UC Berkeley where he was a member of its Master in Financial Engineering (MFE) inaugural class. His professional investment qualifications include the VBA (Dutch version of CFA), the CEFA and the CMT designations.





The University of Edinburgh

Founded in 1583, the University of Edinburgh (UoE) is one of the oldest universities in the UK and is home to over 45,000 students from around the world. UoE is frequently cited as a top 50 university in the world, and 19 Nobel Prizes have been awarded to staff and alumni.

Alongside a great number of impressive historical buildings, the university also owns and maintains cutting edge research facilities and spaces, including the world’s most sophisticated ocean simulator, the UK’s national supercomputer service, and the third largest academic library in Europe.

Edinburgh Futures Institute

Edinburgh Futures Institute (EFI) tackles the complex and global challenges that face the modern world by facilitating and encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration and thinking. This ethos perfectly fits with the MMH, which combines ideas and experts spanning a range of fields.

EFI is currently relocating to the stunningly refurbished Old Royal Infirmary, just a few minutes walk from Edinburgh’s Old Town. The category-A listed building is the perfect space for multidisciplinary collaboration, such as that undertaken by the MMH team, and has been expertly restored and modernised.